The US Presidential Election revisited

What a year we have had in the market.  The year started great and then the market tanked as The Corona virus spread in March. The big bounce we have had and a weak September.

I have tried to give you frameworks to help you play the market.  On Twitter I have told you Quarter 3 with its earnings season rally in July and a poor September a classical quarter.

As you all know 2020 is about the US Presidential Election and with its political and economical implications.  This time it is all about Trump vs Biden.  Biden is ahead in the polls and Trump seems to be the underdog.

Last election Trump catched up the last days before the election.  In 2016 many believed the market to slide if Trump won but history shows it ended  up otherwise.  We had a great rally post election.

One of my favorite investors Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, has a saying.  «What we can learn from history is that we do not learn from history.»  I have tried to convince you into using historical knowledge about markets plenty a time.

In the chart above you see an average election and ordinary year in the market.  What you can see in a typical election year is a rally the 2nd half of the year, a week September, a hesitant market pre election, and a rally after.  This chart I presented to you in the last election in 2016.  Those who believed in history to repeat itself with a big rally post election cashed in big time.

Above I give you this year’s market. As you know we have had a great rally this year as in a typical election year and a poor September and now it seems the market a bit hesitant as well.  The chart over a typical election year seems to be helpful this year again.  Those played the market as election years use to behave have been wise.

Last time around in 2016 I gave you the advice to buy with both hands if the market starting rallying post election.  My blog readers back then have experienced a major rally all from the election and I hope they followed my advice and bought in.

This time around I will come with similar advice.  Buy in if the market starts rallying whether Trump or Biden wins.  Something you must consider this year we are in the midst of a Pandemic.  If economies shut down cause of the virus the market may plunge again.  But this blog is how to play the election.  Perhaps we should listen to investors like Buffett who suggests to believe in history to repeat itself.

Buy in and ride the bull if the market post election takes off.  This worked out all right 2016.

Good luck with your investing.

Mid September – some way down

September has a rumour to be the worst month of the year.  This year looks to be such a year.  Since September 2. the Nasdaq has tanked 10%, a correction as it looks.

The chart shows the market the last month.  It rallied nice up to September.  I somewhat prepared you on Twitter what was coming.  September always a month to be cautious.  Most bic caps have tanked like our long time favorite Apple.

In my «Investing under a Pandemic» from August I adviced you to ride the market and sell when the market started tanking.  A wise plan it seems now. My blog was timed well.

Investors wonder now what to do now mid September.  You probably wonder if this is the end of the 11 year bull or if it is just another correction.

The hugh scale of moneyprinting suggests the rally to go on.  But when will the upwards long term market end.  GDP numbers indicates a really slow economy, the real economy looks bad.

As I interpret the chart above it will fall a bit more, nothing suggests a short time rally.  If you take my earnings season perspective to stocks into consideration, there is a possible rally starting around the beginning of quarter 4. My earnings season theory says there is a probability of a rally from the quarter’s start.

Others I have read suggests this to be a sound correction.  What should you believe?  In my book we are at a very interesting part of the correction will it fall more or will quarter 4 earnings take us into bull territory again.

This is the longest going upwards market in history. In March this year it had lasted 11 years.  It will for sure come to an end one day.  The probability of it to happen now  is a lot larger say 5 years ago.  We for sure come closer and closer to a bear market each year that goes.

Now it is important to follow the direction commencing and be especially aware of a possible rally around the start of next quarter.  Just a couple of weeks to go now.  Let us see if the markets commentators are right this to be a sound correction.

The green economy and top performers

I have followed a lot of green stocks through the years.  The world is becoming greener as economies move towards lower emissions and greener sources of energy.  The EU and others have set optimistic goals to prevent climate change and to make a better world for our children and grand children.

But what has this to do with the stock market.  The answer is a present boom in green stocks which has a great potential to grow as economies turn greener.  Is it too late to invest in these green stocks or are there still great cases to look at.

I would like to present my stocks which I have been tweeting the last year.  These stocks are among the very best stocks in the world.  I have chosen to give you a list of their last year performance with their placing on the one year winners list

All the 5 stocks below are green stocks and they are all among the top 25 stocks in the US the last year.

6. Tesla

Our best performer the last year is Tesla. A stock I have been related to for some years as it was my big case in 2013 when it became the stock of the year.  I have followed the stock closely the last year as it has surged more than 900%.  We who follow Tesla remember when it tanked big time and ended up below $200.  Me and others got lucky when we saw a bounce at the $190 level but did we foresee a 10 doubling in the stock.

Here is the chart of the producer of Electric vehicles.  But what has this to do with the green economy.  Analysts like me believe in a great future of EVs and the industry to grow, hence Tesla still a growth company to pay attention to.  As governments put forwards policies to make the economy greener companies like Tesla will thrive.

8.FuelCell

Another of our green stocks surging the last year FuelCell.  We bottom picked it June last year and the co has got contracts since the bottom of $0.13 pushing the share price to new medium term highs.  I have laid an emphasis on hydrogen stocks the last years as economies as the EU set policies to use a lot more hydrogen to fuel their economies in the near future.  Here you have a hydrogen stock that has gone all the way to top 10 the last year.

Hydrogen stocks still great cases as the use of hydrogen is just in its very start.  They may get some corrections on the way but as the use of hydrogen moves from below 1% to perhaps 30% to fuel the world’s economies it is likely you will have a nice ride with the stocks upwards.

14.Pacific Ethanol

Pacific Ethanol I first presented to you in 2014 when its competitor Biofuel went all the way to the US No. 2 seat year end.  Biofuel I was lucky to tweet in February that year and was a great follow up to the year I tweeted Tesla all the way to No. 1.  Pacific Ethanol got my attention a couple of months ago as I saw it on the winners lists and I found out the surge’s reasons. 

The co which normally produce fuels for cars and the like had made progress with their strategies to produce alcohol for desinfectation now under the ongoing pandemic.  Not only selling more hand desinfectations but also seeing their bottom line really progress into the positive side.  Some days ago when the co came with earnings they came with guiding I seldom see their bottom line to become 1/3 of its market cap at year’s end.  So another green stock performing this year even if there are one of their other business branches thriving.

Not to make this blog to long I will cover the last two stocks in coming blogs.  This Nio and Plug Power.  These two stocks also blooming in the green market we have now. These two also made a great top 25 placing.

I pinpointed the green stocks in my February tweeting and I am happy to see these five stocks among the world’s very best the last year.  Am I writing this to brag about my market achievments.  The answer to that question is no.  I just want to give you my reasoning around these stocks for you to be wiser in your future picking of stocks. 

Good luck with your green stocks investing.

Investing under a Pandemic

I need to come with a blog to give you my take on the current market. The market tanked big time at the first signs of the current pandemic.  Investors panicked and sold out big time as economies closed and GDP forecasts were dramatically reduced

In February and March the Nasdaq sold down 30% and we had several days the market plunged around 9%.  In my February blog I somewhat foresaw a market correction but nowhere near the plunge we had.  My reasoning in February sometimes markets correct post earnings seasons.

Here a chart of the Nasdaq the last year.  As some investors expected a correction in February after a months long rally.  Something the surge in the gold price somewhat suggested.  No one were expecting the market we actually got a collapse in the market.

I was asked on Twitter in March about what to do in the market.  The question was asked by one of my followers. I answered the most likely market was a bounce.  I did not foresee the magnitude of the bounce we have had but the timing was great.

The market has bounced more than 50% since the bottom in March and momentum investors have thrived.  If you ask yourself what to do in such a market my answer would be to ride the bull as long the momentum is there.  The time to sell when the market tank again. 

Followers have asked me lately if the the time to sell is now.  I have answered to be cautious now post earnings.  My calculations show there is a 60% chance of a bigger or smaller sell off post earnings(2015-2019).

In prior blogs I have given you my take on the correlation between GDP growth and market rallies.  I have suggested markets to rally under good GDP conditions.  What now, the US GDP plunged more than 30% the last quarter and the markets shine.  The answer is the central banks’ printing of money and their zero interest rates regimes.  These policies are undertaken to stimulate the economy and as the Nasdaq chart above shows the market is rallying big time.  These policies are to bring the economy back to its normal self.

To summarize what to do, ride the bull till there is certain signs of a sell off.  This strategy been wise for quite a while.

What now – February investing

We have had a 4 month rally following the sideways market movement mid 2019. I have on several occations given you different frameworks to help you investors try to predict the market. In this blog I will discuss these different frameworks and try to help you make sound Investment decisions forwards.

last 52 weeks of Nasdaq trading

In the illustration above you can see the sideways market movement from April to October last year. A lot of investors wondered to go long or perhaps short the market. My regular Readers may recall my Trending Sideways post from January 2017. My advice was like this, quote “When a sideways market follow the new direction when it commences”. This strategy in October last year would have given you a 15% Nasdaq Return.

One of my main contributions on this site has been my earnings season blogs. I have tried to build up a framework where the earnings season is the main structure in the Marketplace. In The earnings season perspective to Stocks I lined out the market to be four different earnings Seasons forming a full year framwork to the Stock market.

As the chart above illustrates we find the different phases of the earnings season in all of the 4 quarters 2019. Quarter 2 has a Nice rally in April, the earnings season rally, which ends up in a deep correction in May and With a rally June. Quarter 3 Has its earnings season rally in July, With correction in August and a slight rally in September. The last quarter of 2019 was a long rally all together.

January ended in a slight correction. What now in February? As my explanation above suggests, the second phase in the earnings season perspective to Stocks suggest, a correction like we had in May and August last year or a rally like we had in quarter 4.

As I have explained in several prior blogs now it is the job of the investor to follow the market direction commencing post the earnings season rally. The market has allready been a little bit weak so be prepared for a possible correction. But not Lock yourself into guessing the forward market better follow the direction starting now, post the earnings season rally January.

This was a very successful strategy in some of my first blogs when I tried to give you a framework around the US Presidential Elections. For you Readers I had back then, following the market direction post the Election in 2016 would have been a wise plan. Of course there has been a lot of reasons for the market bull the last years which have nothing to do With the election.

The earnings season perspective to Stocks framework I have given you to understand more of the Marketplace. In this framework it is possible to give different future predictions of the market. It is of course not bullet proof in predicting but more a framework for the investor to understand what is happening in the market throughout the year.

Good Luck With Your February Investments!

A classical quarter

What a quarter we have had. Opportunities to make good trades plentiful. If you have lost Money in this quarter what have you done wrong and how can you improve future investing? How to become a better investor?

The quarter has been impressive. A great April, the May slump and the best June in 80 years. A volatile and fine market With market trends lasting a full month to make use of.

The market is all about structures. Take quarter 2 this year what to learn? Which classical stuctures did we have in quarter 2 and how to use them in future market settings.

The year started With a New Year’s rally and the January effect. The January effect we can understand as the first phase in the earnings season perspective With the earnings season rally. This structures to take advantage of.

Here you have Our classical quarter. You ask yourself what has been classical about quarter 2 2019?

In April we had a Nice rally, this is what I Call the earnings season rally starting all from the quarter’s start. In May we had the post earnings selloff, With added strength because of the Trump tariff policies. This the well known Sell in May and stay away structure. The great June With a great Bounce after the May selloff. June great possibly cause of stellar earnings April. The June Bounce strong cause of the market volatility created in May.

The Whole quarter a classical earnings season perspective quarter With all Three phases, rally, selloff and Bounce. We can even see the hesitant market before quarter 3, late June, explained in prior blogs.

What can I teach you this time around. When you have distinctive market structues as explained above how to make use of them?

This how to do market structures. When we come to January you as an investor must ask yourself do we have a January effect. When you get to April you must ask yourself do we have an earnings season rally.

As we saw in May With the sell in May structure ask yourself early May is there a Sell in May situation. You must take advantage of these well known market settings.

In quarter 2 2019 a classical quarter and the phases lasting a full month. It has been a great chance to have made blockbuster 10% trades.

Now when quarter 3 starts it is Your job to figure out if the quarter starts With an earnings season rally or not. Learn historical market structures and be sure to make use of them. This to make you an even better investor. Let us all see how quarter 3 starts.

The start of rallies

In my latest blog The start of June I gave you my take on the market one week into June. The market corrected big time in May and we entered June With a Nice Bounce.

The last year of Nasdaq trading

What do we know about markets mid June. Can we use history to predict the market Ahead?

I have written about the start of rallies before. In some of my first blogs I wrote about presidential elections and them to be Investment possibilities. I used historical information about markets after elections and proposed investors to take a market stake if markets started rallying post elections.

What now in June is there something to learn from past market June situations. The big question is if or when the Next rally starts.

The Nasdaq from start of June till end of august 2018

What about using a chart of the market this time of the year one year ago in 2018. As I told you in my last blog The start of June markets sometimes moves towards July in a hesitant way. The chart from last year shows you this Picture. The market hesitant the weeks before quarter 3 and With a rally as soon as we got into July.

I have elaborated around this several times in my earnings season blogs. As soon as the quarter starts we get a Nice rally. Earlier I have given you my take on this rally. The market expecting Nice earnings all from the quarters start.

What I have learned of the earnings season rally in the past is that it has different forms. Sometimes it starts before the quarter starts, sometimes it begins exactly as we enter the quarter and it can even commence a bit out in the quarter.

As I have told you before, as With all rallies, it is the job of the investor to take a stake when one feels confident a rally has started. As With election rallies, earnings season rallies a Nice chance to cash in big time on historical knowledge.

I am not promising a rally this time around, but be all set if you see the quarter 3 rally start.

Knowledge about when rallies start, knowledge to make you a better investor and trader. Sometimes you get rallies big time as we had as we started 2019, sometimes we get smaller rallies.

The big question, do we get an earnings season rally quarter 3 this year. Let history be the judge.

The start of June

You have all now been through a lousy May. We were correct to believe in a Sell in May and stay away situation. This the first time in seven years we have had a Sell in May market. The market corrected 10%.

My belief we were in a sell in May situation on my Sell in May and stay away May 12. based on my earnings season perspective. An earnings season bull often ends in profit taking.

Earlier I have presented my belief in seasonality. Arguing if there were 50% of investors believing in seasonal factors, it to be a major factor in market Developments. This year we have had a New Year’s rally, a January effect and some Nice earnings season rallies. This year even With the sell in May situation.

The Nasdaq 2019

What about the market now June? As the chart shows and as you all probably know June started in a Nice fashion. After the 10% correction in May we have had a very Nice market this first week of the month, The Nasdaq has Advanced 5%.

If the advance continues in the same pace as the previous week we will have a 20 % rise in June, this not likely. The market is up 17% for the year and that is in 5 1/2 months. The market volatile but a 10% correction in May will not be followed by a 20% rise in June.

Last month of Nasdaq trading With a 5% June rally

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls came in on the soft side. The Labour market had produced 75.000 New jobs and my first take this not to be to good for the market. But the market rallied and it seems the market still bullish.

Even if June looks to become a good month do not be surprised if the market Closes up to July in more a hesitant way. The earnings season perspective to Stocks says there is often hesitant markets pre earnings, this due to general market uncertainty.

My May take to when to buy into the market was to buy in when the Train left the station. Those who have jumped on and sit on a Nice Return now, one week into June, must take what I have explained above into their New market analysis. If you have made a momentum play do not forget the market gone up 5% in a week.

We are all happy June looks a lot better than the month of May. Interesting With a sell in May and stay away for the first time in 7 years. Let us now look to quarter 3 and a possible New earnings season rally.

US top performers 2019

You who follow me on Social media will probably know what this blog will be all about. My top performers since my February blog The big Market Bounce of 2019. Why have my Stocks performed that well and what is there to learn for Our Next Investments.

I have to start With Our top performer Roku. In February it had just come With blockbuster earnings and I Blogged the Stock. I started tweeting Roku in January at the $30 Level. It caught my attention With a Nice run since the market bottomed out Christmas 2018. I followed the co all the way to become the US No. 10 in 2017. It had proven itself as a market performer.

Here the impressing 2019 chart. You can see it has tripled since my January tweeting. It has become the US No. 14 this year. Why have Our Stock Made such an impressive run?

In February I gave you my take on the Stock. I Pointed out its big potential. The potential for the streaming TV business was in its potential for New subscribers. This potential great as streaming TV’s market share Close to nothing. My opionion streaming TV Stocks to Excel With increased market share.

Now we can celebrate a top 20 Stock 2019. To my understanding there are Close to 4.000 Stocks in the US market. A great performance.

I have had a handful of Stocks as top 10 before so now the excitement is whether Roku becomes a top 10 Stock. Just 10% percent left to go so we Roku analysts must believe in such a market placing.

Hope you all have cashed in on Roku 2019.

Above you can see my May 3. Twitter tweet concerning Semiconductor Stocks. I have written several times about Semiconductors and here you can see how well these performed before the May market slump.

This is the first time I have tweeted an index best in all time frames. Now the Semiconductors corrected a bit but still real 2019 performers.

I am glad if I have influenced you to invest and make good Investments in the top performing Semiconductors.

This blog to celebrate Our 2019 performers!

Sell in May and stay away

Sell in May and stay away probably a saying you have all heard. The Americans always come up With this Expression as we enter May. Can we relate this to the 2019 Stock market and how can we explain this reoccurence.

This the Nasdaq chart 2019. We can all see the big market Bounce from my February blog. What is also apparent is the slump in May. It seems like we have a situation this year where the sell in May Expression valid. Why does this often happen, the May selldown?

I have tried earlier to explain my take on earnings Seasons. A rally that often ends in a little correction. 2/3 of earnings beat expectations and hence we get an earnings season bull. For me it is Clear, as soon as the big caps had come With earnings we got a profit taking situation With a selldown.

Some of you would say, what about Trump and his newly stated hikes in tariffs With China? Is this not the reason for the little correction? Of course News like this affect markets, but this just in addition to the earnings season profit taking.

If you have been in this May selldown situation earlier, in the 10 year long bull, you would know these selldowns to be buying opportunities. Especially now With a 3.2% US GDP Growth.

In February I came With a when to buy markets statement. You should buy in before the Train leaves the station. In the big Bounce of 2019 you would have cashed in big time With this strategy.

If you are one of my regular Readers you probably picked up my The earnings season perspective to stocks. This hypothesis says there are 4 probable earnings season rallies in a year, as there are 4 earnings Seasons.

When to sell Your long term Investments I wrote about in When the trend breaks. All of you have made great profits in investing in the last 10 years upward trend.

This to help you in this May selldown situation.