In the wake of the Election I need to come with another blogpost. Now we have maneuvered through the Election Period in a nice fashion and need to look forward.
In the chart above you can see a typical Election Year with a rally post election. Will we get such a year, like we had after Obama won in 2012.
Pre election there was a lot of talk of a rally with a Clinton victory. Trump was behind in the polls and the market was somewhat certain of a Dem win.
As everybody knows Donald Trump won a surprise victory.
Even I have to say I am less certain of a market rally after the election result. But can we thrust the chart above.
A 10 day Election chart. You can see the election short term rally and the sideways trend since Friday. The Market looks for direction.
What to do in this situation? Wait out the market for its new direction. There is a higher probability for a rally, but wait and see what happens. There is ample time to buy in if a rally.
Next in line is the December meeting of the FED and a possible rate hike. With a possible new period of a hesitant market. I will come back to the next FED occasion.
Look for the markets new direction. It is not a situation to rush into the market. Do not forget one of the most important traits of an investor, patience. But if you see the market start running be sure to jump in and ride the market Bull.
Last weekend I posted “The Presidential Election” where I tried to give you some strategies to play the US Election. One of my main points was there used to be a hesitant market pre Elections and a rally after.
In the chart above you can see what really happened. A nervous downward market till last Friday and a little rally from Monday.
Sometimes knowledge about markets make things happen a bit earlier than we could expect. The rally started Monday and not Post Election.
A week ago I posted what I believed was the best approach in the Election setting. A wait and see approach. I posted further a strategy if Trump won and the market tanked it would be wise to buy in the bounce.
The way I see it if you waited till Wednesday – the day after Election – and bought into the bounce you could have made some good trades.
The option of buying into the market before and selling in a rally afterwards seems to have been a wise strategy as well.
What I want to tell you today, with planning and making strategies like I did a week ago you can make good trades and investments. Hope some of you used some of my strategies outlined above to make some nice returns.
What about the way further? The wait and see approach seems still relevant. If the Market starts running after an election one option could be to buy in and ride the Bull.
The intention of this blog post is to find ways to play the US Presidential Election. Last election when Barack Obama won we had a great rally in the markets. What about this election?
It is not hard to see the markets have been a bit cautious running up to the election. You can even see a hesitant market prior to the last election in 2012. This is a typical pattern.
What happened in 2012 was a little selling pressure before and a rally after the election. In my book this is a typical reaction in the markets.
I give you this chart. It shows a hesitant market pre elections and a nice rally post Presidential Elections. Some believe in such a market if Clinton wins, some a little more uncertain in the case of a Trump surprise.
One way is to believe in the typical pattern outlined above. Buy the day before and sell in a rally post election. In my view this approach has a little bit of an overnight gambling aspect.
What if the markets tank the day after, which some forecast if Trump wins. This is a case to wait out the situation and buy in before a bounce.
A wait and see approach could be best. If we get a rally like in 2012 one has ample time to buy in and cash in selling on the way up.
Some say the market in 2012 was an exceptionally good market. One must remember this was a market colored by the post Financial Crisis.
Either way you play it Presidential Elections give traders and investors a great chance to make good investments. Good luck.
I will use my second blog post telling you about one of the best performing industries around, the Norwegian Salmon Industry. I have been writing about the industry for years and in the meantime some of the salmon stocks is up tenfold in value. So, what has been the driver behind the salmon stocks’ returns. I will say the ever improving salmon prices.
Salmon prices are up 50% compared to last year and have for the time being a nice positive trend forwards. Salmon prices have historically had a nice period running up till Christmas.
Here I give you an illustration over the Oslo Seafood index over the last years. The index is mainly built up by salmon stocks. Since the beginning of 2012 it is up 500%. I have not heard of indexes outperforming the Seafood index in this period. In my book this rally has its outspring in the demand and supply of salmon. I have had faith in the industry believing the demand side would lead the way resulting in higher salmon prices. The supply side is constricted by regulatory conditions.
One of my favorite salmon stocks the last years Salmar is up tenfold if you add received dividends. I started covering the company around the beginning of 2012, and has been one of the best stocks around since.
My coverage started with a big belief in the salmon industry as a whole. My belief was the demand side would exceed the constricted supply side and as a result higher prices.
I know some of my followers on Twitter has doubled their money in these stocks. I have not been alone in believing in the industry. Analysts have given buy recommendations for years. One of the best industries around.
I will dedicate my first blog post on my new site to Alphabet & Amazon. These stocks have really performed the last years. Amazon in particular has been a favorite of mine over the years. Alphabet is trading at all time high level and Amazon close to it.
What I’d like to explain is why these stocks have been favorites of mine. Amazon has been a spectacular growth case. Started up like more of an online book store it has evolved into a hugh online store of all types of merchandise. Alphabet, which earlier went under the name Google, has had a great revenue potential in its advertisments.
I give you this 4 year illustration over the companies. You must remember these are two of the largest companies traded on the US market, top 10 even.
These giants come with earnings within days, Oct 27th, to be more precise. It will be earnings worth watching. Amazon with a 49% and Alphabet 25% return the last year.