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What to do – Mid December

There were different opinions concerning the direction of the stock Market after the Trump surprise.  As everybody knows we got a Trump rally.

On my blog I found it probable with a rally after the election hope you cashed in.  As you can see the S&P500 is up 7-8%.  The stock I blogged about Advanced Micro Devices up 50% in the period.

What we have to consider now is what to do now mid December.  I believe in seasonality.  Some years we get Christmas and New Year rallies. Our job now is to assess the probability of such rallies this year.

Here you can see the performance of Norwegian energy stocks 2016.  The index up almost 40%.  With the new focus around the OPEC and non-Opec cut deal.  This a sector we got to pay attention to now with a possible rally.

If the oil price starts to pick up there will be a lot of good investment possibilities.

This is Seadrill a Norwegian drilling company.  It started running up to and post our two important OPEC meetings. As you can see it has rallied 75%.  This is a stock I have covered on Twitter after my post Norwegian Performers – oil stocks.  Hope you traded in the stock.

To recap.  Prepare for a possible New Year rally.  Especially focus on the oil price and the possible effect of the production cuts starting January.

Christmas and New Year rallies are important investment settings with possible good returns.

Norwegian Performers – Oil stocks

I have given you the best Norwegian sector Seafood stocks.  These stocks have rallied for years and this year a return of more than 50%

This time around I will focus on oil stocks.  While been under the radar cause of a quite low oil price around $50.  The industry has had more of a rally since the oil price bottomed out below $30 in January.

You all have now heard of the new OPEC oil deal of last week.  This has given new attention to the sector.  Oil stocks rallied up to and post deal.

The Oslo Energy Index
The Oslo Energy Index

As you can see the Norwegian oil sector has performed since January.  The index up almost 30% this year.  I started paying attention to this index in May, the index was up 10% under the radar for most investors.

The OPEC deal to cut production, the first cut deal since 2008 may be a big gamechanger for the industry.  They cut now and will have a new meeting in half a year.

Even the non member Russia has agreed on cutting 300.000 barrels a day.

Now attention is given to the American oil industry and the oil production to pick up due to higher oil price.  Some feel this will somewhat stop the price from escalating.

My take is higher oil prices is good for all stocks within the industry.  My advice will be to focus on sectors in the industry starting to rally more than others.

When it comes to the US oil production and prices. My opinion must be cut in OPEC oil production is good for business, if the cut is sufficient, oil prices will rise.  If OPEC’s strategy is to increase prices we may get even more cuts to outweigh US production increases.

AKERBP
AKERBP

Here I give you the Norwegian performing Oil company AkerBP.  The best OBX -Norwegian largest companies- this year.  It has even outperformed the large salmon stocks.

If the oil price starts to escalate be sure to be invested.  My advice will be similar to when I told you to buy in if the market started rallying around the US Presidential election.  Be sure to jump in if the oil stocks starts running.

Election Rally

Now it has gone two weeks since the US Presidential Election. On this blog we have tried to maneuvre through the election finding ways to invest wisely.

In a setting like an election one should try to make use of historical knowledge.  I gave you a chart of a typical election with a hesitant market pre and a rally after.

My take  have been to jump in the market if it started running.  Jump in and ride the market bull as I put it.  I stated further a higher probability of a rally even with the Trump surprise.

The election month
The election month

As you can see in the chart we have had a nice rally in the S&P 500 since the beginning of the Election Week.  The market is up almost 5 %.

I hope you read my take and bought in when the market started running.  We got a typical Election with a post election rally.

Election month Oslo
Election month Oslo

You can see the same pattern in Oslo, the market up almost 5%.  Have I done something extraordinaire finding it probable with a rally.

Not really,  I have used historical knowledge about elections.  I just told you what was most probable and to jump in the market if it started running.

Hope you have made your 5%.  Now we will have a market waiting for the November OPEC  and the December FED meeting.

Hope you have enjoyed riding the Market Bull.

Norwegian Performers – Seafood stocks

Due to my response on my blogpost “Salmon Stocks the Best Stocks around” I come with a new seafood industry blogpost.

Oslo Seafood index the last year
Oslo Seafood index the last year

The Norwegian Seafood index is up 500% the last 5 years.  In my last blog I explained the industry’s success by increasing salmon prices.  Demand after salmon has outperformed the constricted supply side.

In the chart you can see the industry the last year.  As you can see the Seafood index still with a nice positive trend.

What about my take on the performance forwards.  It is recognised within the industry Salmon prices move upwards in the pre Christmas Market.  Looks like the market has this belief this year as well, ref the chart above.

Norway Royal Salmon the last month
Norway Royal Salmon the last month

In the illustration above you have the best performing seafood stock the last years.  Norway Royal Salmon has an increcible return of 3000% in 5 years.

This chart is the last month.  As you can see NRS is up 20% and still performing.  This is a stock you could have picked up since my last blogpost and made a good return.

I may perhaps brag about the Seafood rally coincide with me start covering the industry in the beginning of 2012.  But I was not alone.  Many an analyst were positive.

I started the year tweeting about my favorite industry for years and I am still tweeting, and there is a good reason for it.

AMD – Advanced Micro Devices

One purpose of my site is to tell you about great companies.  This year AMD has been one of the real performers.  The company is a well known producer of Semiconductors for computers.

amd1711162Here is an illustration of the company’s stock performance 2016.  It has rallied almost 200% and is a contender of becoming one of the best stocks this year.

I started covering AMD this summer when they came with blockbuster earnings.  This was at the $5 level.  AMD was one of the most traded companies on its earnings day and it got my attention.

Trend followers love companies like AMD buy in and follow the trend.

The last two days have been incredible for the stock.  They have come with a deal with Alphabet and its stock has shot through the roof.

I believe in buying into performers like AMD, the trend may continue. Another reason for my coverage since summer  is my belief in buying into companies after good news.  Blockbuster 2nd Quarter earnings is such an occasion.

It will be exciting following AMD as we get closer to the end of 2016.

 

What’s Next – Post Election

In the wake of the Election I need to come with another blogpost.  Now we have maneuvered through the Election Period in a nice fashion and need to look forward.

A typical Election Year

In the chart above you can see a typical Election Year with a rally post election.  Will we get such a year, like we had after Obama won in 2012.

Pre election there was a lot of talk of a rally with a Clinton victory.  Trump was behind in the polls and the market was somewhat certain of a Dem win.

As everybody knows Donald Trump won a surprise victory.

Even I have to say I am less certain of a market rally after the election result.  But can we thrust the chart above.

spx10days

A 10 day Election chart. You can see the election short term rally and the sideways trend since Friday.  The Market looks for direction.

What to do in this situation?  Wait out the market for its new direction. There is a higher probability for a rally, but wait and see what happens. There is ample time to buy in if a rally.

Next in line is the December meeting of the FED and a possible rate hike. With a possible new period of a hesitant market.  I will come back to the next FED occasion.

Look for the markets new direction.  It is not a situation to rush into the market. Do not forget one of the most important traits of an investor, patience. But if you see the market start running be sure to jump in and ride the market Bull.

The Election – A Recap

Last weekend I posted “The Presidential Election” where I tried to give you some strategies to play the US Election.  One of my main points was there used to be a hesitant market pre Elections and a rally after.

spx-election

In the chart above you can see what really happened.  A nervous downward market till last Friday and a little rally from Monday.

Sometimes knowledge about markets make things happen a bit earlier than we could expect.  The rally started Monday and not Post Election.

A week ago I posted what I believed was the best approach in the Election setting.  A wait and see approach.  I posted further a strategy if Trump won and the market tanked it would be wise to buy in the bounce.

The way I see it if you waited till Wednesday – the day after Election – and bought into the bounce you could have made some good trades.

The option of buying into the market before and selling in a rally afterwards seems to have been a wise strategy as well.

What I want to tell you today, with planning and making strategies like I did a week ago you can make good trades and investments. Hope some of you used some of my strategies outlined above to make some nice returns.

What about the way further? The wait and see approach seems still relevant.  If the Market starts running after an election one option could be to buy in and ride the Bull.

The Presidential Election

The intention of this blog post is to find ways to play the US Presidential Election.  Last election when Barack Obama won we had a great rally in the markets.  What about this election?

The Dow Jones the last 5 years
The Dow Jones the last 5 years

It is not hard to see the markets have been a bit cautious running up to the election.  You can even see a hesitant market prior to the last election in 2012.  This is a typical pattern.

What happened in 2012 was a little selling pressure before and a rally after the election.  In my book this is a typical reaction in the markets.

djia-election-year-return

I give you this chart. It shows a hesitant market pre elections and a nice rally post Presidential Elections.  Some believe in such a market if Clinton wins, some a little more uncertain in the case of a Trump surprise.

One way is to believe in the typical pattern outlined above.  Buy the day before and sell in a rally post election.  In my view this approach has a little bit of an overnight gambling aspect.

What if the markets tank the day after, which some forecast if Trump wins.  This is a case to wait out the situation and buy in before a bounce.

A wait and see approach could be best.  If we get a rally like in 2012 one has ample time to buy in and cash in selling on the way up.

Some say the market in 2012 was an exceptionally good market.  One must remember this was a market colored by the post Financial Crisis.

Either way you play it Presidential Elections give traders and investors a great chance to make good investments.  Good luck.

Salmon stocks The best stocks around

I will use my second blog post telling you about one of the best performing industries around, the Norwegian Salmon Industry.  I have been writing about the industry for years and in the meantime some of the salmon stocks is up tenfold in value.  So, what has been the driver behind the salmon stocks’ returns.  I will say the ever improving salmon prices.

Salmon prices are up 50% compared to last year and have for the time being a nice positive trend forwards.  Salmon prices have historically had a nice period running up till Christmas.

osloseafood-index-291016-alldata

Here I give you an illustration over the Oslo Seafood index over the last years.  The index is mainly built up by salmon stocks.  Since the beginning of 2012 it is up 500%.  I have not heard of indexes outperforming the Seafood index in this period.  In my book this rally has its outspring in the demand and supply of salmon.  I have had faith in the industry believing the demand side would lead the way resulting in higher salmon prices. The supply side is constricted by regulatory conditions.

Salmar stock up nearly tenfold
Salmar stock up nearly tenfold

One of my favorite salmon stocks the last years Salmar is up tenfold if you add received dividends.  I started covering the company around the beginning of 2012, and has been one of the best stocks around since.

My coverage started with a big belief in the salmon industry as a whole. My belief was the demand side would exceed the constricted supply side and as a result higher prices.

I know some of my followers on Twitter has doubled their money in these stocks.  I have not been alone in believing in the industry.  Analysts have given buy recommendations for years.  One of the best industries around.

Alphabet & Amazon performing

I will dedicate my first blog post on my new site to Alphabet & Amazon. These stocks have really performed the last years. Amazon in particular has been a favorite of mine over the years. Alphabet is trading at all time high level and Amazon close to it.

What I’d like to explain is why these stocks have been favorites of mine. Amazon has been a spectacular growth case. Started up like more of an online book store it has evolved into a hugh online store of all types of merchandise. Alphabet, which earlier went under the name Google, has had a great revenue potential in its advertisments.

Alphabet And Amazon 4 year performance
Alphabet And Amazon 4 year performance

I give you this 4 year illustration over the companies.  You must remember these are two of the largest companies traded on the US market, top 10 even.

These giants come with earnings within days, Oct 27th, to be more precise.  It will be earnings worth watching.  Amazon with a 49% and Alphabet 25% return the last year.