Netflix & Amazon – market performers

Little less than a year ago I came with my Netflix & Amazon blog.  I had started the year 2017 recommending the FANG stocks which Netflix & Amazon a part of.

In my April FANG blog I presented how I often reason around picking stocks.  I told you I tended to like stocks doing business in more modern ways and part of progress.  This the case for both Amazon & Netflix.

In my blog “The year of the FANG” I presented more of my FANG analysis.  When it comes to Netflix it has all been about its subscriber growth. My thoughts last summer was a potential of perhaps 5oom or even 1B subscribers.  This way beyond the present level of 115m.  Stocks with such great potentials possible winners in the marketplace.

Amazon I have always viewed as a growth case.  The 90’s internet bookstore, these days a global contender in e-commerce.  The reason why I have believed in the company as easy as mentioned above. A company winning ground in a new way of doing business. I one of those who believed in the internet to become a major marketplace in commerce.

Hope some of you went long Netflix, a market winner the last year. Top 4 among the S&P 500. A 100% Return since my April 2017 blog I have to say I am pleased with. What has been the driver behind the stock’s rally?

You can see the big upticks in January and February this year.  It has been all about the big beat in subscriber growth.  The growth of subscribers at a greater pace than expected.  Now it will be interesting to see how quarter 2 starts and if we will have an earnings season run as we have had in past quarters.

Amazon one of the best stocks in modern times.  Trading around $2 in the 90’s it has been one of the all time winners.  The 2nd best FANG since January 2017.

I view Amazon as a growth case and its business keeps growing.  One can ask oneself if to buy a stock with low profits like Amazon’s.  The general idea is the company to have great profits in the future when the co. shifts strategy from growth to making more profit.

I am happy it has been a winner and I hope I made some of you buy in.  As with Netflix we now have to look for the possible earnings season run of quarter 2.

I must not forget to mention the late market turbulence.  In my book it all started as all of the FAANG had come with earnings quarter 1. The market was more than mature for a correction.  Now quarter 2 will show the way ahead.  Let the market set its forward direction.

Investing in March

We have an interesting market situation.  There was a 10% correction from the market peaked out end of January. We got a real bounce where we  regained most of the ground lost in February.

The market drop started as soon as the heavyweights the FAANG had come with earnings.  As we have had a 2 year winning streak the market was more than mature for a little correction. As I have pointed out earlier we can get corrections in the end of earnings season. Is this the case this time around as well.

What everybody wonder now is what next?  The pattern above is a traditonal correction ending in a bounce market pattern.  Hope most of you made use of the 10% bounce.

Is this a short term correction or is it part of a bigger market movement.  Myself I have always used the outlook for the overall economy as my main contribution to market analysis.  What does the outlook for the economy look like in the time ahead.  Stock markets tend to run under good economical conditions.

This the Nasdaq 3 year chart. This to show you the positive long term market trend.  The late correction just a minor setback as you can see.  This illustration gives no reason to become pessimistic.  The overall economical outlook still positive.

Is there any reason for some kind of concern?  As we all know we have had a great multiyear bull market.  No wonder the small correction, which some will say nearly overdue.  My answer is to believe in your subjective odds for your overall economical outlook. That is your belief in the development of GDP growth and perhaps outlook of the housing market.

I have to say I share the views of the FED Chair Jerome Powell.  A good US economical outlook.  Hence the ratehikes.  That said always uncertainty with markets.  A good strategy is the one I set forward in my US Election blogs.  Follow the market direction as it commences, even when you have a positive market bias.

I have given you an earnings season framework to use in your market analysis. Next quarter starting April 1.  Look for the earnings season rally and if we will have one quarter 2.  Never any good reasons to hurry into investments, patience the name of the game.

US Top Performers 2018

Some of our stocks have started the year in a real nice fashion.  Prior I have given you my earnings season insights. Is it possible our stocks’ rallies can relate to our earnings season hypotheses?

Here a stock I presented to you on Twitter back in September, Oprah Winfrey’s Weight Watchers.  This one of the best performers the last year. You can see the nice positive trend since the start of Q1.  Last spring I proposed some stocks started to run all from the quarter’s start.  I have related this to speculation around the coming earnings and them to excel.

Your job is somewhat to monitor the market at the quarter’s start and jump in when your watchlist stocks start to run.  Weight Watchers’ stock has followed my proposed earnings season pattern this quarter.  I have perhaps not proven my hypothesis but this is a pattern I have seen for years, and something I believe my readers can benefit from.

Netflix is one of the top performers the last years and member of what we call the FANG.  I have shown you the FANG has followed the earnings season rally pattern on several occations the last year.  Even this time around you could have benefited from going long at the quarter’s start.

Netflix the No. 1 stock among the S&P 500 2018.  It has rallied more than 40%.  In my book the driver behind Netflix’ performance is its subscriber growth.  Prior I have given you my guess of a substantial potential in number of subscribers.  This probably one of the main reasons behind the stock’s performance.

Our winners from 2017 semiconductors also with a rally 2018.  AMD & Nvidia  among the top performing S&P 500.  I have believed in these stocks cause of a probable future escalating demand for semiconductors.  Hope you read my blogs 2017.

I am happy my earnings season hypothesis seem to have worked out all right quarter 1  2018.  One can perhaps say monitoring the market for stocks starting to run can take a lot of resources.  One way to help out on this situation is what I have told you above, work out from your watchlist.  I have been lucky  my FANG has followed my proposed pattern the last year.

Good luck with your trading & investing 2018.

The best stocks around – Semiconductors

In June I posted my first general semiconductors stocks blog.  The Semiconductors had rallied for years. I tried to give you my take on the sector.

November 2016 I came with my AMD blog, I told you why I was positive and believed in the company.  It peaked out as the 6th best US stock overall one year.

Here you can see the Semiconductors index SOX since my June blog. Performed well as you can see, beating the overall market by 10%.  Looks like I have been lucky with my positive June analysis.

In June I pointed out the growing artificial intelligence and server park segments as drivers for the sector.  Media has focused a lot around chips in the cryptocurrencies segment as well.

Here the best performing semiconductors.  Hope you been long one of these.  All of them top 10 S&P 500 the last month.  Micron been the best S&P 500 for a while.  The semiconductor stocks contenders of becoming the best S&P 500 2017.  Nvidia leading in the one year frame with a 198% return.

I believe the sector to be one of the top contenders for the S&P 500 winners list 2017.  They are already leading among the S&P 500 one year, and the late surge, being among the top 10 in the one month span.

They have to prove their winners list placing in the ongoing earnings season.  If we get great earnings another reason to stay with the semiconductors.

As I said in June the market believes in semiconductors and still do.  The late rally in the sector a proof of this.  Many investors try to keep to winner stocks and this sector a true winner the whole year.

Hope some of you read my June blog and sit on a 30% return since.

OPEC & Oil stocks performance 2017

Being a Norwegian blogger not strange with my oil stocks coverage.  The Norwegian stock exchange often referred to an energy stock market.

In my popular “Norwegian performers – oil stocks” I tried to give you some wise ways to play the November 2016 OPEC meeting.  My best advice was to buy in if the oil stocks started to run.  History shows you should have followed my advice, oil stocks rallied almost 15 % in a month.

I followed up with my February “Oil stocks – post OPEC deal”.  Here I tried to caution you oil stock investors.  My take was to wait till the oil price started to rise again before investing.

My experience tells me you can get far in the stock markets with common sense.  Many an investor wondered when to go long oil the spring 2017.

Here you can see the Brent crude since mid June, the oil price started to escalate.  This post the May 25th OPEC meeting.  The results of the meeting started to make an impact on the oil price.

Post the November 2016 OPEC meeting we also had an oil bull.

In this oil stocks illustration you can see the bull started as the oil price rise commenced.  Our plan from February to start buying oil stocks when the oil price started to rise seems like an OK plan.  You can get far with common sense.

Both of these bull markets started with OPEC meetings.  The OPEC meetings seem successful on getting the oil price on track.

My place in this quite low oil price situation has been to try to help you oil investors maneuver through 2017.  Buying in when the oil stocks started to run and waiting till the oil price started to rise late spring wise investment plans.

These plans could be used post future OPEC meetings.  My common sense investment plans learned by empirical experience to be used on a regular basis.

Hope you all have cashed in on oil stocks 2017.

What now – September investing

It is time to recap and to try to find new investment opportunities now September.  In my blog “Investing in the middle of June” I tried to reason around why to believe in seasonality.

September has a rumor of being the least performing month of the year. Earlier I have outlined the earnings season months JAJ to be the best.  The JAJ being January, April and July.

Even in believing in seasonality. One must always analyze the individual years.  I have come up with the term subjective odds. It is the individual investor to put odds on the market, the odds for a bull or a bear.

In June I argued around a June 5% sell down.  I argued there was not much sign of a big sell off this year.  The chart suggests this was pretty much how it went.

In July we got the profit season rally described in my blog “How to do – profit seasons”.  All of the FANG rallied from the Quarter’s start. Hope you traded and cashed in on the July bull.  As you can see the rally ended in a small sell off.

A chart showing the last year of Nasdaq trading.  A huge rally since the November presidential Election.

What about investing now September.  The market been somewhat flat since June.  I have told you before what to do in these situations. I described this market setting in “Trending sideways”.  One ought to invest in the direction commencing when you believe the sideways trend to end.

In the illustration above I see no sign of a major sell down. But remember always to trade with a stop loss.  September like June a month to be more cautious.

We got pretty good August jobs figures and the GDP growth was revised up to 3% last week.  This positive for the markets. Your belief in the markets must be based on your take on the US economy.  The economy been on track for years.

Hope you have enjoyed the great market bull of 2017.

Norwegian seafood stocks performing

On this blog I have focused on Norwegian seafood stocks.  They have performed for years.  I will try to tell you why I have believed and still believe in these stocks.

If you study the Norwegian winners list one month you find a lot of salmon stocks. Norway Royal Salmon, Grieg Seafoods and Bakkafrost some of the winners.

Five out of ten stocks on the winners list five years also seafood stocks.  The best Norway Royal salmon performing more than 1200%

Looking at the chart back to 2012 the word impressing comes into mind. The trend nice and positive supported by high salmon prices.

If you look at the seafood stocks’ performance the last year. The ever important factor of timing stocks always important. Looks like the beginning of April a perfect time to invest medium term.

Why have I had a positive bias concerning seafood stocks.  With a growing population world wide and a more constricted supply of seafood in world oceans.  There has been a growing demand for seafood driving the prices.

I am not a biologist but growing demand cause of population growth and perhaps a shift towards more healthy foods like seafood two major factors behind the sector’s performance.

In the Norwegian salmon sector there is an additional factor.  The supply side is constricted by regulations.  This to have a sustainable industry. When you constrict the supply side and demand is growing you get escalating prices.

Some of the best stocks in the long run. Some believe the good days of the salmon industry to last for years.  I was for sure lucky starting to focus on the industry back in the start of 2012.

Salmon stocks some of the best stocks around.

The Stock Speculator

In this blog I will try to tell you some of my investment philosophy.  There has been written many books on the subject, what can I contribute on the matter.

I will start with a quote from one of the investors I respect the most, Warren Buffett. The quote goes like this: “For 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.”

Here you can see the Dow Jones’ historical performance.  A trend follower would have called this a nice positive trend.  No wonder the Buffett saying.

How to use this in today’s investment setting?  In my book sometimes investing decisions should be based on the subjective odds in the investment situation.

If you talk to a person who often base decisions on odds he would say the chart above tells us there is greater chance for a market rally or a bull market. Perhaps he would have given the rally a 60% chance.

The last year there has been a great post Election market rally.  Believing in the greater odds of a rally would have paid off.

So is there a mistake to believe in bear markets. Of course not, if you go into market analysis on a shorter term, sometimes the subjective odds should be greater for a bear market.

To recap. I believe in the market to rally in the long run and one should most often bet on a rising market. I have given you the term subjective odds. It is the individual investor to put odds on the individual market setting.

I just love to quote Buffett, why not try to learn from one of the all time greats.

The year of the FANG

I started the year with focus on the FANG. Even my first post on this site was FANG.  How have these performed through the year and why to these keep performing.

In my post “The start of the year – January” I stated: “These are stocks worth watching as a long term investment.  Pick your own personal favorites”.  So how did it go.

Facebook and Netflix up around 50% this year.  Netflix has even climbed to top 5 out of the best S&P500 52 weeks.  Amazon has returned 36% and Alphabet 21%.

I am impressed by the performance of these giants, just remember these are not exactly small caps.

So why do these market performers keep performing.

Facebook keeps adding daily active users.  This being 1,32B in the 2nd quarter 2017.  This user growth gives the company an even higher revenues potential through  its advertising business.

Netflix came in with 104m subscribers at its latest earnings update.  This growth of subscribers has been going on for years. The market likes such growth.

My old favorite all from the 90’s Amazon keeps growing and Wall Street loves it.  In addition it seems like its profitable cloud business makes the stock price shine.

Alphabet been a favorite for years.  Its advertisement business on YouTube and Google driving the revenues up for years.  The co has climbed to become the world’s 2nd largest listed company, just after Apple.

What about the time ahead.  Netflix has a great potential of subscriber growth. One can ask oneself is the potential 500m or perhaps 1B. Either way you see it the potential being an important factor.

When you talk about Facebook it is also potential that comes into mind. Even with the enormous amount of daily users, there is a great revenues potential in its advertisments.

Amazon I believe still will grow and hence still a good long term investment.

Alphabet has like Facebook a great potential for revenues growth.  Just imagine how revenues may grow from all advertisements on its YouTube channel and search engine Google world wide.

I am happy I tried to make you go long FANG the start of the year. 50% return in half a year for two of them a very good performance.  Some of the best long term investments around.

Profit season trading

In all times man has been interested into finding ways to invest and prosper from wise ways. In the stock market analysts have come up with different ways to analyze.  They use different ways like technical and fundamental analysis.

In April I proposed there were patterns in the market to benefit from. Earlier I have presented the presidential election to be a historical market pattern to make use of.

In April I came with my blog “How to do -Profit seasons”.  I came with several insights into the profit season.  This from empirical experience.

I suggested the broader market quite often rallied in profit season and even came up with the term profit season rally.

Further I suggested to buy into stocks starting to run from the new quarter’s beginning.  Sometimes the market believed in nice earnings all from the quarter’s start.

Here you see the Oslo market from the beginning of April. Here you can see the suggested pattern.  The profit season rally starts mid April and lasts till mid May.  This is quite a typical recurrence.  Why not make use of this knowledge.

What about my proposed stock run all from the quarter’s start.  In the chart you can see the best US stock last 10 years Netflix in the latest profit season.  The stock starting to run like suggested from the start of the month.  You can see this pattern in all of the FANG stocks.  The FANG being Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.  All of these performed since my January blog. Hope you invested in the FANG from the month’s start.

I have just suggested ways to invest wisely.  This profit season pattern I have learned from my years following the markets.  This time around it seems to have worked out all right.

I am just glad if you followed my take on profit seasons and made some nice profit season trades.