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What now – September investing

It is time to recap and to try to find new investment opportunities now September.  In my blog “Investing in the middle of June” I tried to reason around why to believe in seasonality.

September has a rumor of being the least performing month of the year. Earlier I have outlined the earnings season months JAJ to be the best.  The JAJ being January, April and July.

Even in believing in seasonality. One must always analyze the individual years.  I have come up with the term subjective odds. It is the individual investor to put odds on the market, the odds for a bull or a bear.

In June I argued around a June 5% sell down.  I argued there was not much sign of a big sell off this year.  The chart suggests this was pretty much how it went.

In July we got the profit season rally described in my blog “How to do – profit seasons”.  All of the FANG rallied from the Quarter’s start. Hope you traded and cashed in on the July bull.  As you can see the rally ended in a small sell off.

A chart showing the last year of Nasdaq trading.  A huge rally since the November presidential Election.

What about investing now September.  The market been somewhat flat since June.  I have told you before what to do in these situations. I described this market setting in “Trending sideways”.  One ought to invest in the direction commencing when you believe the sideways trend to end.

In the illustration above I see no sign of a major sell down. But remember always to trade with a stop loss.  September like June a month to be more cautious.

We got pretty good August jobs figures and the GDP growth was revised up to 3% last week.  This positive for the markets. Your belief in the markets must be based on your take on the US economy.  The economy been on track for years.

Hope you have enjoyed the great market bull of 2017.

Norwegian seafood stocks performing

On this blog I have focused on Norwegian seafood stocks.  They have performed for years.  I will try to tell you why I have believed and still believe in these stocks.

If you study the Norwegian winners list one month you find a lot of salmon stocks. Norway Royal Salmon, Grieg Seafoods and Bakkafrost some of the winners.

Five out of ten stocks on the winners list five years also seafood stocks.  The best Norway Royal salmon performing more than 1200%

Looking at the chart back to 2012 the word impressing comes into mind. The trend nice and positive supported by high salmon prices.

If you look at the seafood stocks’ performance the last year. The ever important factor of timing stocks always important. Looks like the beginning of April a perfect time to invest medium term.

Why have I had a positive bias concerning seafood stocks.  With a growing population world wide and a more constricted supply of seafood in world oceans.  There has been a growing demand for seafood driving the prices.

I am not a biologist but growing demand cause of population growth and perhaps a shift towards more healthy foods like seafood two major factors behind the sector’s performance.

In the Norwegian salmon sector there is an additional factor.  The supply side is constricted by regulations.  This to have a sustainable industry. When you constrict the supply side and demand is growing you get escalating prices.

Some of the best stocks in the long run. Some believe the good days of the salmon industry to last for years.  I was for sure lucky starting to focus on the industry back in the start of 2012.

Salmon stocks some of the best stocks around.

The Stock Speculator

In this blog I will try to tell you some of my investment philosophy.  There has been written many books on the subject, what can I contribute on the matter.

I will start with a quote from one of the investors I respect the most, Warren Buffett. The quote goes like this: “For 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.”

Here you can see the Dow Jones’ historical performance.  A trend follower would have called this a nice positive trend.  No wonder the Buffett saying.

How to use this in today’s investment setting?  In my book sometimes investing decisions should be based on the subjective odds in the investment situation.

If you talk to a person who often base decisions on odds he would say the chart above tells us there is greater chance for a market rally or a bull market. Perhaps he would have given the rally a 60% chance.

The last year there has been a great post Election market rally.  Believing in the greater odds of a rally would have paid off.

So is there a mistake to believe in bear markets. Of course not, if you go into market analysis on a shorter term, sometimes the subjective odds should be greater for a bear market.

To recap. I believe in the market to rally in the long run and one should most often bet on a rising market. I have given you the term subjective odds. It is the individual investor to put odds on the individual market setting.

I just love to quote Buffett, why not try to learn from one of the all time greats.

The year of the FANG

I started the year with focus on the FANG. Even my first post on this site was FANG.  How have these performed through the year and why to these keep performing.

In my post “The start of the year – January” I stated: “These are stocks worth watching as a long term investment.  Pick your own personal favorites”.  So how did it go.

Facebook and Netflix up around 50% this year.  Netflix has even climbed to top 5 out of the best S&P500 52 weeks.  Amazon has returned 36% and Alphabet 21%.

I am impressed by the performance of these giants, just remember these are not exactly small caps.

So why do these market performers keep performing.

Facebook keeps adding daily active users.  This being 1,32B in the 2nd quarter 2017.  This user growth gives the company an even higher revenues potential through  its advertising business.

Netflix came in with 104m subscribers at its latest earnings update.  This growth of subscribers has been going on for years. The market likes such growth.

My old favorite all from the 90’s Amazon keeps growing and Wall Street loves it.  In addition it seems like its profitable cloud business makes the stock price shine.

Alphabet been a favorite for years.  Its advertisement business on YouTube and Google driving the revenues up for years.  The co has climbed to become the world’s 2nd largest listed company, just after Apple.

What about the time ahead.  Netflix has a great potential of subscriber growth. One can ask oneself is the potential 500m or perhaps 1B. Either way you see it the potential being an important factor.

When you talk about Facebook it is also potential that comes into mind. Even with the enormous amount of daily users, there is a great revenues potential in its advertisments.

Amazon I believe still will grow and hence still a good long term investment.

Alphabet has like Facebook a great potential for revenues growth.  Just imagine how revenues may grow from all advertisements on its YouTube channel and search engine Google world wide.

I am happy I tried to make you go long FANG the start of the year. 50% return in half a year for two of them a very good performance.  Some of the best long term investments around.

Profit season trading

In all times man has been interested into finding ways to invest and prosper from wise ways. In the stock market analysts have come up with different ways to analyze.  They use different ways like technical and fundamental analysis.

In April I proposed there were patterns in the market to benefit from. Earlier I have presented the presidential election to be a historical market pattern to make use of.

In April I came with my blog “How to do -Profit seasons”.  I came with several insights into the profit season.  This from empirical experience.

I suggested the broader market quite often rallied in profit season and even came up with the term profit season rally.

Further I suggested to buy into stocks starting to run from the new quarter’s beginning.  Sometimes the market believed in nice earnings all from the quarter’s start.

Here you see the Oslo market from the beginning of April. Here you can see the suggested pattern.  The profit season rally starts mid April and lasts till mid May.  This is quite a typical recurrence.  Why not make use of this knowledge.

What about my proposed stock run all from the quarter’s start.  In the chart you can see the best US stock last 10 years Netflix in the latest profit season.  The stock starting to run like suggested from the start of the month.  You can see this pattern in all of the FANG stocks.  The FANG being Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.  All of these performed since my January blog. Hope you invested in the FANG from the month’s start.

I have just suggested ways to invest wisely.  This profit season pattern I have learned from my years following the markets.  This time around it seems to have worked out all right.

I am just glad if you followed my take on profit seasons and made some nice profit season trades.

Visiting countries 2017

Europe: Albania – Austria – Belarus – Belgium – Bosnia-Herzegovina – Bulgaria – Czech Republic – Cyprus – Denmark – Estonia – Finland – France – Germany – Great Britain – Greece – Hungary  – Ireland – Italy – Latvia – Lithuania – Luxembourg – Macedonia – Malta – Moldova – Montenegro – Netherlands – Norway – Poland – Portugal – Romania – Serbia – Slovak Republic – Slovenia – Spain – Sweden – Switzerland

Asia: Afghanistan – Armenia – Azerbaidjan – Bahrain – Bangladesh – Brunei – Cambodia – China – Georgia – India – Indonesia – Iran – Iraq – Israel – Japan – Jordan – Kazakhstan – Kuwait – Kyrgyzstan –  Laos – Lebanon – Malaysia -Maldives – Mongolia – Myanmar – Nepal – Oman – Pakistan – Philippines – Quatar – Russian Federation – Saudi Arabia – Seychelles – Singapore – South Korea – Sri Lanka – Syria – Tadjikistan – Taiwan – Thailand – Turkey – Ukraine – United Arab Emirates – Vietnam

America: Antigua & Barbuda – Argentina – Bahamas – Barbados – Belize – Bolivia – Brazil – Canada – Chile – Colombia – Costa Rica -Curacao – Dominican Republic – Ecuador – El Salvador – Guatemala – Guyana – Honduras – Jamaica – Mexico – Panama – Paraguay – Peru –  Puerto Rico – Saint Vincent & the Grenadines – Sint Maarten – Suriname – Trinidad and Tobago – United States – Uruguay – Venezuela – Virgin Islands

Africa: Algeria – Angola – Benin – Botswana – Cameroon – Djibouti – Egypt -Equtorial Guinea – Ethiopia – Gambia – Ghana – Ivory Coast – Kenya – Liberia – Libya – Madagascar – Malawi – Mauritania – Mauritius – Morocco – Mozambique – Namibia – Nigeria – Rwanda – Senegal – South Africa – Sudan – Swaziland – Tanzania – Togo – Tunisia – Uganda – Zambia – Zimbabwe

Oceania: Australia – New Zealand – Palau – Samoa Islands – Vanuatu

Norwegian performers- Shipping stocks

Earlier I have outlined two of the major sectors of the Oslo Stock Exchange, oil and seafood. Another sector is the Norwegian shipping industry.

While the oil stocks lagging behind cause of the oil price hovering around $50, seafood stocks been correcting from all time high levels, shipping stocks have performed 2017.

The Oslo Market is up a couple percent 2017, shipping however has returned 12%.

The largest Norwegian Shipping companies, Wilhelmsen, Golden Ocean and Frontline.

The biggest performers this year the new entity Wallenius Wilhelmsen and Golden Ocean. WWL into logistics and transportation of vehicles returning 45%. Golden Ocean, one of John Fredriksen’s companies, into dry bulk, with a 34% gain.

Perhaps shipping is profiting from world wide growth. IMF has prognosed world growth to be around 3.5% 2017.  Shipping tending to be cyclical.

Analysts believing in the new Wallenius Wilhelmsen entity also good for the shipping sector.

Dry bulk been down cause of a negative demand and supply situation around the shipping market for dry bulk ships. Now the market believes this situation to be improving.

The shipping index up 12% 2017 we have to say is competitive. The broad US index S&P 500 +8% the first half of the year 2017.  While oil and seafood stocks have met their challenges, shipping stocks with a nice rally.

Always stocks worth watching.  In retrospect shipping stocks been the Norwegian sector to have been invested in 2017. A pretty good chance of the sector to keep its momentum.

Let us all hope for a good start of the upcoming Q2 profit season.

The best of the S&P 500 – Semiconductors

I have had the privilege of covering some of the best stocks around.  The latest years stocks like Tesla & Amazon have really excelled.  You might wonder why I from time to time find some real winners.

The last year I have focused on semiconductors and the company AMD in particular.

The semiconductor index SOX has been a real winner for years.  The index up more than 400% from the bottom of the financial crisis.

The last year the graphics semiconductor co Nvidia has climbed to the   No. 1 spot of the S&P500 with a stellar 217% return.  Close behind AMD  in 2nd place returning 172%.

Why did I start covering AMD in July 2016? It seems like I have been lucky to focus on one of the best stocks around.

The summer of 2016 AMD was priced around $5.50. The stock had a nice year returning more than 100%. Sometimes such winners get my attention.

It was talks of a turnaround for the company and it had just come up with stellar earnings.  I believe in buying into co’s with nice positive trends, believing the trend to continue.  Another factor I use when I pick stocks is buying after positive news.  Stellar earnings being such a positive occasion.

The semiconductor sector performing for years.  Growing demand for semiconductors the obvious reason.

AMD is going into the server segment of Intel which is very profitable, with its Epyc chip.  The server segment being interesting now with the growing cloud business. Further they will enter the profitable high end segment of grahics processors of Nvidia.  Two very interesting strategies.  These strategies to make a difference in the top and bottom line of the company, if successful.

The semiconductor industry is one of the top performing industries.  With new attention around cloud services and the upcoming new artificial intelligence segment.  The industry set to grow with a probable increased usage of semiconductors, that be in smart houses, self driving cars or server parks for the cloud sector.

The market has believed and does believe in the future of semiconductors. One of the most interesting industries around.

 

Investing in the middle of June

Some believe in seasonality and some do not.  Let us say we split the investment community into two halves who is right?

As an investor one has to take all factors into consideration. If 50% of the market believe in historical patterns of course this has an important impact on the marketplace.

I have outlined the presidential election and the profit season to be settings to look at history.

What can we learn of prior years in middle of June.  As most of you know we have the all important saying “Sell in May and stay away”.  No doubt this has a historical aspect.  There has been many major sell-offs post Quarter 1 profit seasons.

This year the market has been strong.  We have had a minor setback in techs and Investment banks like Deutsche Bank has been talking about a probable 5% sell off in the Nasdaq Index.

Here you have the tech index Nasdaq.  Even here you can see the hesitant market before and rally post election.  The Nasdaq up around 20% in the time period post election.

Media has tried to make the last days into a market downturn in techs. The chart above shows there is little proof so far of a major sell down. The market still with a nice positive trend.

One should always this time of the year be cautious of the potential June correction.  But there is little evidence this year.  But always be cautious.

This year has been influenced by the promised policies of the Trump administration.  I have outlined the Trump policies deregulation, tax cuts and other Wall Street friendly policies.  The economy been on track as well. This driving the market.

I hope you read my Trending Sideways blog in January.  Buy in when a new market direction commences was my best advice.  It seems to have been a wise strategy 2017.  Hope you bought in.

I believe in seasonality. A lot do, so this becomes an important factor.  In the broader market outlined above little evidence of a June sell down this year. But June always a month to be cautious.

Prior I have told you I have had a positive forward look.  The market has been rallying all year.  Make sure to follow the market direction now middle of June.

Tesla Inc.

Tesla Inc fetched my interest a long time before its 2010 IPO.  I was impressed by its Roadster model which is a full electric sports car.  Media reported a lot of cool folks owning it.

From time to time I follow company introductions.  In June 2010 it was time for the Tesla IPO.  Media reported Daimler, Panasonic & Toyota to be partners.  I started following the co.  In November 2010 I began my blog coverage.

It IPO’ed at $17 and started running slowly up to the $40 level in the beginning of 2013. Prior it had started delivering Model S in June 2012.

In the start of 2013 Tesla was the most shorted co on the US market.  I started seeing a potential short squeeze.  The stock  had been running for a couple of years and the shorts started to look weary.

At the $40 level I got lucky and tweeted “Tesla Motors up on heavy volume”.  As you can see from the chart it started rocketing.  The shorts started panicking and the short squeeze was a reality.  If I remember it right 2013 was a year Tesla came up with its first earnings on the positive side.  Stocks have a tendency of rallying around such positive news.

Marketwatch named Tesla the best stock of 2013.

Tesla rocketing in 2013 was of course more than a squeeze. You do not get such a rally without many believing in the co and its technology.  Many view Tesla more of a tech firm than a car manufacturer.

The rally continued into 2014.  It consolidated for a while.  The introduction of the model 3 in 2016 gave the stock new attention.

This was to be a cheaper model than the model S with a km 350 range.  It has received hundreds of thousands of preorders.  This will be the first large scale production model of Tesla reaching 10,000 cars a week in 2018.

The rally we have seen since the end of 2016 till now has all been about the model 3.  The stock up 75 % this year.  Not uncommon with such rallies up to tech introductions.  You can just look to the introductions of new Iphones.

Tesla has a 2000% return since its 2010 IPO.  To make the top 10 US stocks last 10 years you need 1300%.  In my book this makes Tesla one of the top 10 US stocks in the 5-10 year span.

I have covered a lot of great companies like Amazon & Apple and I will compare Tesla with those.  Tesla been one of the long term greats.

I will for sure continue covering the great Tesla. Still a very interesting co and I believe the future could be great for electronicly charged vehicles.

In my country Norway Tesla has been a giant success being the biggest overseas market for the Co.  The model S has even topped the overall car sales lists.

Good luck with Tesla trading and investing!