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What now – February investing

We have had a 4 month rally following the sideways market movement mid 2019. I have on several occations given you different frameworks to help you investors try to predict the market. In this blog I will discuss these different frameworks and try to help you make sound Investment decisions forwards.

last 52 weeks of Nasdaq trading

In the illustration above you can see the sideways market movement from April to October last year. A lot of investors wondered to go long or perhaps short the market. My regular Readers may recall my Trending Sideways post from January 2017. My advice was like this, quote “When a sideways market follow the new direction when it commences”. This strategy in October last year would have given you a 15% Nasdaq Return.

One of my main contributions on this site has been my earnings season blogs. I have tried to build up a framework where the earnings season is the main structure in the Marketplace. In The earnings season perspective to Stocks I lined out the market to be four different earnings Seasons forming a full year framwork to the Stock market.

As the chart above illustrates we find the different phases of the earnings season in all of the 4 quarters 2019. Quarter 2 has a Nice rally in April, the earnings season rally, which ends up in a deep correction in May and With a rally June. Quarter 3 Has its earnings season rally in July, With correction in August and a slight rally in September. The last quarter of 2019 was a long rally all together.

January ended in a slight correction. What now in February? As my explanation above suggests, the second phase in the earnings season perspective to Stocks suggest, a correction like we had in May and August last year or a rally like we had in quarter 4.

As I have explained in several prior blogs now it is the job of the investor to follow the market direction commencing post the earnings season rally. The market has allready been a little bit weak so be prepared for a possible correction. But not Lock yourself into guessing the forward market better follow the direction starting now, post the earnings season rally January.

This was a very successful strategy in some of my first blogs when I tried to give you a framework around the US Presidential Elections. For you Readers I had back then, following the market direction post the Election in 2016 would have been a wise plan. Of course there has been a lot of reasons for the market bull the last years which have nothing to do With the election.

The earnings season perspective to Stocks framework I have given you to understand more of the Marketplace. In this framework it is possible to give different future predictions of the market. It is of course not bullet proof in predicting but more a framework for the investor to understand what is happening in the market throughout the year.

Good Luck With Your February Investments!

A classical quarter

What a quarter we have had. Opportunities to make good trades plentiful. If you have lost Money in this quarter what have you done wrong and how can you improve future investing? How to become a better investor?

The quarter has been impressive. A great April, the May slump and the best June in 80 years. A volatile and fine market With market trends lasting a full month to make use of.

The market is all about structures. Take quarter 2 this year what to learn? Which classical stuctures did we have in quarter 2 and how to use them in future market settings.

The year started With a New Year’s rally and the January effect. The January effect we can understand as the first phase in the earnings season perspective With the earnings season rally. This structures to take advantage of.

Here you have Our classical quarter. You ask yourself what has been classical about quarter 2 2019?

In April we had a Nice rally, this is what I Call the earnings season rally starting all from the quarter’s start. In May we had the post earnings selloff, With added strength because of the Trump tariff policies. This the well known Sell in May and stay away structure. The great June With a great Bounce after the May selloff. June great possibly cause of stellar earnings April. The June Bounce strong cause of the market volatility created in May.

The Whole quarter a classical earnings season perspective quarter With all Three phases, rally, selloff and Bounce. We can even see the hesitant market before quarter 3, late June, explained in prior blogs.

What can I teach you this time around. When you have distinctive market structues as explained above how to make use of them?

This how to do market structures. When we come to January you as an investor must ask yourself do we have a January effect. When you get to April you must ask yourself do we have an earnings season rally.

As we saw in May With the sell in May structure ask yourself early May is there a Sell in May situation. You must take advantage of these well known market settings.

In quarter 2 2019 a classical quarter and the phases lasting a full month. It has been a great chance to have made blockbuster 10% trades.

Now when quarter 3 starts it is Your job to figure out if the quarter starts With an earnings season rally or not. Learn historical market structures and be sure to make use of them. This to make you an even better investor. Let us all see how quarter 3 starts.

The start of rallies

In my latest blog The start of June I gave you my take on the market one week into June. The market corrected big time in May and we entered June With a Nice Bounce.

The last year of Nasdaq trading

What do we know about markets mid June. Can we use history to predict the market Ahead?

I have written about the start of rallies before. In some of my first blogs I wrote about presidential elections and them to be Investment possibilities. I used historical information about markets after elections and proposed investors to take a market stake if markets started rallying post elections.

What now in June is there something to learn from past market June situations. The big question is if or when the Next rally starts.

The Nasdaq from start of June till end of august 2018

What about using a chart of the market this time of the year one year ago in 2018. As I told you in my last blog The start of June markets sometimes moves towards July in a hesitant way. The chart from last year shows you this Picture. The market hesitant the weeks before quarter 3 and With a rally as soon as we got into July.

I have elaborated around this several times in my earnings season blogs. As soon as the quarter starts we get a Nice rally. Earlier I have given you my take on this rally. The market expecting Nice earnings all from the quarters start.

What I have learned of the earnings season rally in the past is that it has different forms. Sometimes it starts before the quarter starts, sometimes it begins exactly as we enter the quarter and it can even commence a bit out in the quarter.

As I have told you before, as With all rallies, it is the job of the investor to take a stake when one feels confident a rally has started. As With election rallies, earnings season rallies a Nice chance to cash in big time on historical knowledge.

I am not promising a rally this time around, but be all set if you see the quarter 3 rally start.

Knowledge about when rallies start, knowledge to make you a better investor and trader. Sometimes you get rallies big time as we had as we started 2019, sometimes we get smaller rallies.

The big question, do we get an earnings season rally quarter 3 this year. Let history be the judge.

The start of June

You have all now been through a lousy May. We were correct to believe in a Sell in May and stay away situation. This the first time in seven years we have had a Sell in May market. The market corrected 10%.

My belief we were in a sell in May situation on my Sell in May and stay away May 12. based on my earnings season perspective. An earnings season bull often ends in profit taking.

Earlier I have presented my belief in seasonality. Arguing if there were 50% of investors believing in seasonal factors, it to be a major factor in market Developments. This year we have had a New Year’s rally, a January effect and some Nice earnings season rallies. This year even With the sell in May situation.

The Nasdaq 2019

What about the market now June? As the chart shows and as you all probably know June started in a Nice fashion. After the 10% correction in May we have had a very Nice market this first week of the month, The Nasdaq has Advanced 5%.

If the advance continues in the same pace as the previous week we will have a 20 % rise in June, this not likely. The market is up 17% for the year and that is in 5 1/2 months. The market volatile but a 10% correction in May will not be followed by a 20% rise in June.

Last month of Nasdaq trading With a 5% June rally

Friday’s nonfarm payrolls came in on the soft side. The Labour market had produced 75.000 New jobs and my first take this not to be to good for the market. But the market rallied and it seems the market still bullish.

Even if June looks to become a good month do not be surprised if the market Closes up to July in more a hesitant way. The earnings season perspective to Stocks says there is often hesitant markets pre earnings, this due to general market uncertainty.

My May take to when to buy into the market was to buy in when the Train left the station. Those who have jumped on and sit on a Nice Return now, one week into June, must take what I have explained above into their New market analysis. If you have made a momentum play do not forget the market gone up 5% in a week.

We are all happy June looks a lot better than the month of May. Interesting With a sell in May and stay away for the first time in 7 years. Let us now look to quarter 3 and a possible New earnings season rally.

US top performers 2019

You who follow me on Social media will probably know what this blog will be all about. My top performers since my February blog The big Market Bounce of 2019. Why have my Stocks performed that well and what is there to learn for Our Next Investments.

I have to start With Our top performer Roku. In February it had just come With blockbuster earnings and I Blogged the Stock. I started tweeting Roku in January at the $30 Level. It caught my attention With a Nice run since the market bottomed out Christmas 2018. I followed the co all the way to become the US No. 10 in 2017. It had proven itself as a market performer.

Here the impressing 2019 chart. You can see it has tripled since my January tweeting. It has become the US No. 14 this year. Why have Our Stock Made such an impressive run?

In February I gave you my take on the Stock. I Pointed out its big potential. The potential for the streaming TV business was in its potential for New subscribers. This potential great as streaming TV’s market share Close to nothing. My opionion streaming TV Stocks to Excel With increased market share.

Now we can celebrate a top 20 Stock 2019. To my understanding there are Close to 4.000 Stocks in the US market. A great performance.

I have had a handful of Stocks as top 10 before so now the excitement is whether Roku becomes a top 10 Stock. Just 10% percent left to go so we Roku analysts must believe in such a market placing.

Hope you all have cashed in on Roku 2019.

Above you can see my May 3. Twitter tweet concerning Semiconductor Stocks. I have written several times about Semiconductors and here you can see how well these performed before the May market slump.

This is the first time I have tweeted an index best in all time frames. Now the Semiconductors corrected a bit but still real 2019 performers.

I am glad if I have influenced you to invest and make good Investments in the top performing Semiconductors.

This blog to celebrate Our 2019 performers!

Sell in May and stay away

Sell in May and stay away probably a saying you have all heard. The Americans always come up With this Expression as we enter May. Can we relate this to the 2019 Stock market and how can we explain this reoccurence.

This the Nasdaq chart 2019. We can all see the big market Bounce from my February blog. What is also apparent is the slump in May. It seems like we have a situation this year where the sell in May Expression valid. Why does this often happen, the May selldown?

I have tried earlier to explain my take on earnings Seasons. A rally that often ends in a little correction. 2/3 of earnings beat expectations and hence we get an earnings season bull. For me it is Clear, as soon as the big caps had come With earnings we got a profit taking situation With a selldown.

Some of you would say, what about Trump and his newly stated hikes in tariffs With China? Is this not the reason for the little correction? Of course News like this affect markets, but this just in addition to the earnings season profit taking.

If you have been in this May selldown situation earlier, in the 10 year long bull, you would know these selldowns to be buying opportunities. Especially now With a 3.2% US GDP Growth.

In February I came With a when to buy markets statement. You should buy in before the Train leaves the station. In the big Bounce of 2019 you would have cashed in big time With this strategy.

If you are one of my regular Readers you probably picked up my The earnings season perspective to stocks. This hypothesis says there are 4 probable earnings season rallies in a year, as there are 4 earnings Seasons.

When to sell Your long term Investments I wrote about in When the trend breaks. All of you have made great profits in investing in the last 10 years upward trend.

This to help you in this May selldown situation.

The big Market Bounce of 2019

We have had a great start of 2019. We all lost confidence back in October when we got a deep correction ending just before Christmas 2018.

The market is all about structures. Before Christmas last year it was a traditonal situation if we got a Santa Rally or not. The first sign of the big Bounce started. The best traders went long as the Santa Rally commenced.

As we entered the New Year it was all about a New market structure. The New Year’s rally or the January effect as some refer it to. As I have suggested earlier it is all about jumping on the Train as the Train leaves the station. When you see a rally start jump on, of course With a stop loss.

With the Great jobs numbers January the market was set for a big rally.

What we have experienced in the market the last 6 months a traditional correction With a Sharp Bounce structure. I know some of you would say I Express my views With to much certainty. My point is there is a lot of good trades to be made in traditonal market structures like the New Year’s rally.

What about Our market performers and their 2019 performance. I have to start With the Streaming TV co Roku and Thursday’s blockbuster earnings.

While the market leader Netflix have been one of the big S&P 500 gainers the smaller ROKU has been among the overall market big performers.

Why did ROKU skyrocket as one of the US winners now Friday. I have told you before it is all about potential, potential and potential. As the TV market moves more and more into modern streaming solutions Companies like Netflix and Roku will Excel.

I do not know of the streaming TV’s market share all but it is small. The big potential for streaming is to increase market share. This is a story we know from other businesses. Amazon is a great example of a Company taking market share With New ways in an old fashioned traditional market.

Hope some of you have followed my ROKU tweets this year gone long and doubled Your Money. We all like Our Stocks on the US winners list.

I have written several blogs on Semiconductor Stocks so I am happy to see AMD as the best S&P 500 the last year. In my world Semiconductor Stocks cyclical and benefitting from the ten year long bull market.

As I see it the Semiconductors business is growing. The first sign of the use of artificial intelligence and use perhaps in self driving cars and smart houses a big potential for the industry.

AMD which have started their fight With their rivals Intel and Nvidia in their monopoly markets will be a real market performer if its strategy succesful. AMD’s market performance is a sign of the market believing in its New strategy.

Now we all have to look for New triggers in the market. If we look at the chart I started With the Bounce has a certain deep correction and Sharp Bounce structure.

We must not now not forget to look forward at New macro events. As I have told you before bull markets With a big positive correlation With good macro conditions. As I see it you must look to the coming Nonfarm payrolls and if the numbers can say something about the US GDP outlook.

Good Luck With Your Investments.

When the trend breaks

I want to teach you some of my long term market insights.  You have probably read books and media publishments on when to sell your stocks as a long term investor.

The other day I read you should sit on stocks all of the time and never take profits.  I have to say I like this strategy but what about major market corrections and when we get a market situation like we had under the financial crisis.

Most investors have their own opinions about when to take profits.  This time around I will tell you some of my market philosophy.  Sometimes you feel others have more successful strategies than your own. I can mention the legend Warren Buffett and the way he plans and makes investments.

Here you can see the ten year chart of the tecnology index Nasdaq.  What is apparent is the long term positive trend.  The market up since the bottom of the crisis in March 2009.  What can we use this simple long term chart for.

Trend following popular these days.  Market trend followers have cashed in the last nine years. What can we learn from them.

My proposal is to sell your stocks when the long term trend breaks. If you bought your stocks in 2012 you would have done wise to sit all of the time till now.  This if you are a long term investor.

Myself I have always tried to time short and medium term corrections.  This is a strategy more for investors with trading capabilities.  If you are clever at timing short term corrections you should of course continue investing more short and medium term.

To sell your stocks as the long term trend breaks more of a long term strategy.  Further I have to say I would add the use of diversified portfolios to this investment strategy.

Hope you found the strategy of selling as the market trend breaks helpful.

US top performers 2018 part II

I have to follow up on my blog from January US top performers 2018. I want to teach you how I reason around finding top performers.  Is it the case I am just lucky or is it some elements in my analysis you can learn from.

In January I came with Netflix, Weight Watchers , AMD & Nvidia. These are stocks you probably have heard of.  These stocks performing for some time now.

Netflix had rallied 40 % in January and was the best S&P 500 of the year.  It rallied cause of its earnings and heavy subscriber growth figures.  I have many times told you my belief in a great potential in subscribers.  It seems like this belief has paid off.  Now Netflix the 3rd best S&P 500 of 2018.  Why not start using potential of stocks in your stock analysis.

Last summer I came with a semiconductors blog. I presented AMD & Nvidia as top performers. This year AMD is the best performing stock out of the 500 Standard & Poor’s.  Why has this happened.  Last summer I presented the strategies of AMD, to enter the high end market of Nvidia and the server segment of Intel. These very profitable segments with close to monopoly pricing.  When reports started coming in this year these strategies starting to pay off the stock rallied big time.  Why not start taking strategies of a company you believe in into your stock analysis.

Weight Watchers peaked out medium term June and was at the time the best US stock overall in the 3 year span.  This has all been about Oprah Winfrey and her impact on the company’s performance.  Sometimes it is smart to pay attention to strategicly important owners . Oprah done Weight Watchers into one of the greats.

Nvidia also a semiconductor which has performed well.  Graphics chips for computers a profitable industry.

Hope you have learned somthing new in your way to pick stocks. This a topic I will probably elaborate further on in coming blogs.

The earnings season perspective to stocks

On my blog I have tried to communicate my insights into the stockmarket.  I have written about the FANG and semiconductor stocks.  This time around I will elaborate around a topic I have brought up before, the earnings season.

In How to do – Profit Seasons I gave you a framework to do good trades in traditional earnings seasons. Today I will take this further and make this into an earnings season perspective to stocks.

What I have explained before, stocks tend to start running all from the quarter’s start. This probably cause of high earnings expectations. This run something to make use of.  I have showed you on several occations this been the case for the giants FANG, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.

What do I mean with an earnings season perspective to stocks. Why not divide the year into four earnings season quarters. Add our insights from How to do – Profit Seasons and you get a full year framework to the stockmarket.

Here the best performing S&P500 Stock 2018 Netflix.  Just look at the last two month performance.  You can see the run from the quarter’s start.  The run ends with a selloff post earnings. The stock consolidates and the run resumes.  Perhaps cause of analyst upgrades post earnings

I will propose the two month run of  Netflix to be a traditional earnings season pattern.  Or one of several outcomes in an earnings season.  Here the investors have expected good earnings from the quarter’s start.  The stock came with killer earnings and got analyst upgrades post earnings.

Why not make use of this insight. If you put four charts from different quarters besides another  you get my earnings season perspective to stocks. The pattern of Netflix quarter two one of the possible outcomes of an earnings season quarter.

This to elaborate further on earnings seasons and make frameworks to make use of in the invesment setting.