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The big Market Bounce of 2019

We have had a great start of 2019. We all lost confidence back in October when we got a deep correction ending just before Christmas 2018.

The market is all about structures. Before Christmas last year it was a traditonal situation if we got a Santa Rally or not. The first sign of the big Bounce started. The best traders went long as the Santa Rally commenced.

As we entered the New Year it was all about a New market structure. The New Year’s rally or the January effect as some refer it to. As I have suggested earlier it is all about jumping on the Train as the Train leaves the station. When you see a rally start jump on, of course With a stop loss.

With the Great jobs numbers January the market was set for a big rally.

What we have experienced in the market the last 6 months a traditional correction With a Sharp Bounce structure. I know some of you would say I Express my views With to much certainty. My point is there is a lot of good trades to be made in traditonal market structures like the New Year’s rally.

What about Our market performers and their 2019 performance. I have to start With the Streaming TV co Roku and Thursday’s blockbuster earnings.

While the market leader Netflix have been one of the big S&P 500 gainers the smaller ROKU has been among the overall market big performers.

Why did ROKU skyrocket as one of the US winners now Friday. I have told you before it is all about potential, potential and potential. As the TV market moves more and more into modern streaming solutions Companies like Netflix and Roku will Excel.

I do not know of the streaming TV’s market share all but it is small. The big potential for streaming is to increase market share. This is a story we know from other businesses. Amazon is a great example of a Company taking market share With New ways in an old fashioned traditional market.

Hope some of you have followed my ROKU tweets this year gone long and doubled Your Money. We all like Our Stocks on the US winners list.

I have written several blogs on Semiconductor Stocks so I am happy to see AMD as the best S&P 500 the last year. In my world Semiconductor Stocks cyclical and benefitting from the ten year long bull market.

As I see it the Semiconductors business is growing. The first sign of the use of artificial intelligence and use perhaps in self driving cars and smart houses a big potential for the industry.

AMD which have started their fight With their rivals Intel and Nvidia in their monopoly markets will be a real market performer if its strategy succesful. AMD’s market performance is a sign of the market believing in its New strategy.

Now we all have to look for New triggers in the market. If we look at the chart I started With the Bounce has a certain deep correction and Sharp Bounce structure.

We must not now not forget to look forward at New macro events. As I have told you before bull markets With a big positive correlation With good macro conditions. As I see it you must look to the coming Nonfarm payrolls and if the numbers can say something about the US GDP outlook.

Good Luck With Your Investments.

When the trend breaks

I want to teach you some of my long term market insights.  You have probably read books and media publishments on when to sell your stocks as a long term investor.

The other day I read you should sit on stocks all of the time and never take profits.  I have to say I like this strategy but what about major market corrections and when we get a market situation like we had under the financial crisis.

Most investors have their own opinions about when to take profits.  This time around I will tell you some of my market philosophy.  Sometimes you feel others have more successful strategies than your own. I can mention the legend Warren Buffett and the way he plans and makes investments.

Here you can see the ten year chart of the tecnology index Nasdaq.  What is apparent is the long term positive trend.  The market up since the bottom of the crisis in March 2009.  What can we use this simple long term chart for.

Trend following popular these days.  Market trend followers have cashed in the last nine years. What can we learn from them.

My proposal is to sell your stocks when the long term trend breaks. If you bought your stocks in 2012 you would have done wise to sit all of the time till now.  This if you are a long term investor.

Myself I have always tried to time short and medium term corrections.  This is a strategy more for investors with trading capabilities.  If you are clever at timing short term corrections you should of course continue investing more short and medium term.

To sell your stocks as the long term trend breaks more of a long term strategy.  Further I have to say I would add the use of diversified portfolios to this investment strategy.

Hope you found the strategy of selling as the market trend breaks helpful.

US top performers 2018 part II

I have to follow up on my blog from January US top performers 2018. I want to teach you how I reason around finding top performers.  Is it the case I am just lucky or is it some elements in my analysis you can learn from.

In January I came with Netflix, Weight Watchers , AMD & Nvidia. These are stocks you probably have heard of.  These stocks performing for some time now.

Netflix had rallied 40 % in January and was the best S&P 500 of the year.  It rallied cause of its earnings and heavy subscriber growth figures.  I have many times told you my belief in a great potential in subscribers.  It seems like this belief has paid off.  Now Netflix the 3rd best S&P 500 of 2018.  Why not start using potential of stocks in your stock analysis.

Last summer I came with a semiconductors blog. I presented AMD & Nvidia as top performers. This year AMD is the best performing stock out of the 500 Standard & Poor’s.  Why has this happened.  Last summer I presented the strategies of AMD, to enter the high end market of Nvidia and the server segment of Intel. These very profitable segments with close to monopoly pricing.  When reports started coming in this year these strategies starting to pay off the stock rallied big time.  Why not start taking strategies of a company you believe in into your stock analysis.

Weight Watchers peaked out medium term June and was at the time the best US stock overall in the 3 year span.  This has all been about Oprah Winfrey and her impact on the company’s performance.  Sometimes it is smart to pay attention to strategicly important owners . Oprah done Weight Watchers into one of the greats.

Nvidia also a semiconductor which has performed well.  Graphics chips for computers a profitable industry.

Hope you have learned somthing new in your way to pick stocks. This a topic I will probably elaborate further on in coming blogs.

The earnings season perspective to stocks

On my blog I have tried to communicate my insights into the stockmarket.  I have written about the FANG and semiconductor stocks.  This time around I will elaborate around a topic I have brought up before, the earnings season.

In “How to do profit seasons” I gave you a framework to do good trades in traditional earnings seasons. Today I will take this further and make this into an earnings season perspective to stocks.

What I have explained before, stocks tend to start running all from the quarter’s start. This probably cause of high earnings expectations. This run something to make use of.  I have showed you on several occations this been the case for the giants FANG, Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.

What do I mean with an earnings season perspective to stocks. Why not divide the year into four earnings season quarters. Add our insights from “How to do profit seasons” and you get a full year framework to the stockmarket.

Here the best performing S&P500 Stock 2018 Netflix.  Just look at the last two month performance.  You can see the run from the quarter’s start.  The run ends with a selloff post earnings. The stock consolidates and the run resumes.  Perhaps cause of analyst upgrades post earnings

I will propose the two month run of  Netflix to be a traditional earnings season pattern.  Or one of several outcomes in an earnings season.  Here the investors have expected good earnings from the quarter’s start.  The stock came with killer earnings and got analyst upgrades post earnings.

Why not make use of this insight. If you put four charts from different quarters besides another  you get my earnings season perspective to stocks. The pattern of Netflix quarter two one of the possible outcomes of an earnings season quarter.

This to elaborate further on earnings seasons and make frameworks to make use of in the invesment setting.

 

Netflix & Amazon – market performers

Little less than a year ago I came with my Netflix & Amazon blog.  I had started the year 2017 recommending the FANG stocks which Netflix & Amazon a part of.

In my April FANG blog I presented how I often reason around picking stocks.  I told you I tended to like stocks doing business in more modern ways and part of progress.  This the case for both Amazon & Netflix.

In my blog “The year of the FANG” I presented more of my FANG analysis.  When it comes to Netflix it has all been about its subscriber growth. My thoughts last summer was a potential of perhaps 5oom or even 1B subscribers.  This way beyond the present level of 115m.  Stocks with such great potentials possible winners in the marketplace.

Amazon I have always viewed as a growth case.  The 90’s internet bookstore, these days a global contender in e-commerce.  The reason why I have believed in the company as easy as mentioned above. A company winning ground in a new way of doing business. I one of those who believed in the internet to become a major marketplace in commerce.

Hope some of you went long Netflix, a market winner the last year. Top 4 among the S&P 500. A 100% Return since my April 2017 blog I have to say I am pleased with. What has been the driver behind the stock’s rally?

You can see the big upticks in January and February this year.  It has been all about the big beat in subscriber growth.  The growth of subscribers at a greater pace than expected.  Now it will be interesting to see how quarter 2 starts and if we will have an earnings season run as we have had in past quarters.

Amazon one of the best stocks in modern times.  Trading around $2 in the 90’s it has been one of the all time winners.  The 2nd best FANG since January 2017.

I view Amazon as a growth case and its business keeps growing.  One can ask oneself if to buy a stock with low profits like Amazon’s.  The general idea is the company to have great profits in the future when the co. shifts strategy from growth to making more profit.

I am happy it has been a winner and I hope I made some of you buy in.  As with Netflix we now have to look for the possible earnings season run of quarter 2.

I must not forget to mention the late market turbulence.  In my book it all started as all of the FAANG had come with earnings quarter 1. The market was more than mature for a correction.  Now quarter 2 will show the way ahead.  Let the market set its forward direction.

Investing in March

We have an interesting market situation.  There was a 10% correction from the market peaked out end of January. We got a real bounce where we  regained most of the ground lost in February.

The market drop started as soon as the heavyweights the FAANG had come with earnings.  As we have had a 2 year winning streak the market was more than mature for a little correction. As I have pointed out earlier we can get corrections in the end of earnings season. Is this the case this time around as well.

What everybody wonder now is what next?  The pattern above is a traditonal correction ending in a bounce market pattern.  Hope most of you made use of the 10% bounce.

Is this a short term correction or is it part of a bigger market movement.  Myself I have always used the outlook for the overall economy as my main contribution to market analysis.  What does the outlook for the economy look like in the time ahead.  Stock markets tend to run under good economical conditions.

This the Nasdaq 3 year chart. This to show you the positive long term market trend.  The late correction just a minor setback as you can see.  This illustration gives no reason to become pessimistic.  The overall economical outlook still positive.

Is there any reason for some kind of concern?  As we all know we have had a great multiyear bull market.  No wonder the small correction, which some will say nearly overdue.  My answer is to believe in your subjective odds for your overall economical outlook. That is your belief in the development of GDP growth and perhaps outlook of the housing market.

I have to say I share the views of the FED Chair Jerome Powell.  A good US economical outlook.  Hence the ratehikes.  That said always uncertainty with markets.  A good strategy is the one I set forward in my US Election blogs.  Follow the market direction as it commences, even when you have a positive market bias.

I have given you an earnings season framework to use in your market analysis. Next quarter starting April 1.  Look for the earnings season rally and if we will have one quarter 2.  Never any good reasons to hurry into investments, patience the name of the game.

US Top Performers 2018

Some of our stocks have started the year in a real nice fashion.  Prior I have given you my earnings season insights. Is it possible our stocks’ rallies can relate to our earnings season hypotheses?

Here a stock I presented to you on Twitter back in September, Oprah Winfrey’s Weight Watchers.  This one of the best performers the last year. You can see the nice positive trend since the start of Q1.  Last spring I proposed some stocks started to run all from the quarter’s start.  I have related this to speculation around the coming earnings and them to excel.

Your job is somewhat to monitor the market at the quarter’s start and jump in when your watchlist stocks start to run.  Weight Watchers’ stock has followed my proposed earnings season pattern this quarter.  I have perhaps not proven my hypothesis but this is a pattern I have seen for years, and something I believe my readers can benefit from.

Netflix is one of the top performers the last years and member of what we call the FANG.  I have shown you the FANG has followed the earnings season rally pattern on several occations the last year.  Even this time around you could have benefited from going long at the quarter’s start.

Netflix the No. 1 stock among the S&P 500 2018.  It has rallied more than 40%.  In my book the driver behind Netflix’ performance is its subscriber growth.  Prior I have given you my guess of a substantial potential in number of subscribers.  This probably one of the main reasons behind the stock’s performance.

Our winners from 2017 semiconductors also with a rally 2018.  AMD & Nvidia  among the top performing S&P 500.  I have believed in these stocks cause of a probable future escalating demand for semiconductors.  Hope you read my blogs 2017.

I am happy my earnings season hypothesis seem to have worked out all right quarter 1  2018.  One can perhaps say monitoring the market for stocks starting to run can take a lot of resources.  One way to help out on this situation is what I have told you above, work out from your watchlist.  I have been lucky  my FANG has followed my proposed pattern the last year.

Good luck with your trading & investing 2018.

The best stocks around – Semiconductors

In June I posted my first general semiconductors stocks blog.  The Semiconductors had rallied for years. I tried to give you my take on the sector.

November 2016 I came with my AMD blog, I told you why I was positive and believed in the company.  It peaked out as the 6th best US stock overall one year.

Here you can see the Semiconductors index SOX since my June blog. Performed well as you can see, beating the overall market by 10%.  Looks like I have been lucky with my positive June analysis.

In June I pointed out the growing artificial intelligence and server park segments as drivers for the sector.  Media has focused a lot around chips in the cryptocurrencies segment as well.

Here the best performing semiconductors.  Hope you been long one of these.  All of them top 10 S&P 500 the last month.  Micron been the best S&P 500 for a while.  The semiconductor stocks contenders of becoming the best S&P 500 2017.  Nvidia leading in the one year frame with a 198% return.

I believe the sector to be one of the top contenders for the S&P 500 winners list 2017.  They are already leading among the S&P 500 one year, and the late surge, being among the top 10 in the one month span.

They have to prove their winners list placing in the ongoing earnings season.  If we get great earnings another reason to stay with the semiconductors.

As I said in June the market believes in semiconductors and still do.  The late rally in the sector a proof of this.  Many investors try to keep to winner stocks and this sector a true winner the whole year.

Hope some of you read my June blog and sit on a 30% return since.

OPEC & Oil stocks performance 2017

Being a Norwegian blogger not strange with my oil stocks coverage.  The Norwegian stock exchange often referred to an energy stock market.

In my popular “Norwegian performers – oil stocks” I tried to give you some wise ways to play the November 2016 OPEC meeting.  My best advice was to buy in if the oil stocks started to run.  History shows you should have followed my advice, oil stocks rallied almost 15 % in a month.

I followed up with my February “Oil stocks – post OPEC deal”.  Here I tried to caution you oil stock investors.  My take was to wait till the oil price started to rise again before investing.

My experience tells me you can get far in the stock markets with common sense.  Many an investor wondered when to go long oil the spring 2017.

Here you can see the Brent crude since mid June, the oil price started to escalate.  This post the May 25th OPEC meeting.  The results of the meeting started to make an impact on the oil price.

Post the November 2016 OPEC meeting we also had an oil bull.

In this oil stocks illustration you can see the bull started as the oil price rise commenced.  Our plan from February to start buying oil stocks when the oil price started to rise seems like an OK plan.  You can get far with common sense.

Both of these bull markets started with OPEC meetings.  The OPEC meetings seem successful on getting the oil price on track.

My place in this quite low oil price situation has been to try to help you oil investors maneuver through 2017.  Buying in when the oil stocks started to run and waiting till the oil price started to rise late spring wise investment plans.

These plans could be used post future OPEC meetings.  My common sense investment plans learned by empirical experience to be used on a regular basis.

Hope you all have cashed in on oil stocks 2017.

What now – September investing

It is time to recap and to try to find new investment opportunities now September.  In my blog “Investing in the middle of June” I tried to reason around why to believe in seasonality.

September has a rumor of being the least performing month of the year. Earlier I have outlined the earnings season months JAJ to be the best.  The JAJ being January, April and July.

Even in believing in seasonality. One must always analyze the individual years.  I have come up with the term subjective odds. It is the individual investor to put odds on the market, the odds for a bull or a bear.

In June I argued around a June 5% sell down.  I argued there was not much sign of a big sell off this year.  The chart suggests this was pretty much how it went.

In July we got the profit season rally described in my blog “How to do – profit seasons”.  All of the FANG rallied from the Quarter’s start. Hope you traded and cashed in on the July bull.  As you can see the rally ended in a small sell off.

A chart showing the last year of Nasdaq trading.  A huge rally since the November presidential Election.

What about investing now September.  The market been somewhat flat since June.  I have told you before what to do in these situations. I described this market setting in “Trending sideways”.  One ought to invest in the direction commencing when you believe the sideways trend to end.

In the illustration above I see no sign of a major sell down. But remember always to trade with a stop loss.  September like June a month to be more cautious.

We got pretty good August jobs figures and the GDP growth was revised up to 3% last week.  This positive for the markets. Your belief in the markets must be based on your take on the US economy.  The economy been on track for years.

Hope you have enjoyed the great market bull of 2017.